The Blog

A Note for the Government about the Arts

This one goes out to Simon, Patrick and Jack.

I have to be honest guys: I was furious. The absurd increase to the arts council is below the rate of inflation and therefore is a cut in real terms, following on from a year when it was effectively frozen (another real terms cut). These year on year cuts only mean that the infrastructure of arts centres, galleries and independent production companies – the things that are responsible for the vast majority of public engagements and most of the contracts for artists of all persuasion – will either contract, or will try to sustain their output in the face of ever rising prices and start to bankrupt themselves by spending down their reserves. Freezing (cutting) funding in a sector in which prices rise faster than the rest of the economy can only ever have one result. And then to try and hide this managed decline behind the basic income (the rollout of which has been pretty shambolic lets be honest) does not inspire confidence. Yes, giving money to people who don’t have any is a really good economic policy regardless of what the person does, but the basic income simply reduces deprivation from three times the national average to twice the national average, is already worth significantly less than it was in the first year of the pilot, and – gosh – because you’ve frozen the funding to the arts council the wider sector will be less able to provide opportunities to artists who are on BIA. And then you announce a €6m capital allocation to a sector that really needs something like €50m (at a modest guess). Oh yes, and then you promise to “consider” some tax incentives at some point in the future.

So I may have said some things in the heat of the moment, and I apologise for that, You guys are doing your best under a lot of pressure.

I assume this pressure you’re under means that you don’t get the luxury of second guessing, so I thought I might do that for you.

Since the arts council was founded the way the arts have been funded in this county has been built on single concept from a particular school of economics: the arts are a market that cannot pay for itself because there is a gap between what it costs to make a piece of art and what audiences can pay for it. For example, the majority of people can’t afford to buy a painting by a professional artist so we bundle work together into a gallery and let the public spend some time with it – if they have time, desire and capability. In other words the state fills the gap between what the art costs to make and what the public can afford to pay. This is the market failure concept, and almost everything in Irish Arts and Culture Policy flows from it : the subsidy, the grant, the annual anxiety about whether the gap has grown or shrunk. And fair enough: Baumol’s Cost Disease is real – the cost of making theatre, dance, music, literature, visual art, music goes up every day and peoples disposable income simply cannot match these rising costs – so without subsidy the whole thing collapses.

Now, guys, lets just take a time-out, a policy breather as it were, and lets look at the assumptions that sit underneath the market failure model. The moment we say that a market has failed then we must have assumed there was (or could be) a natural, self-correcting market there to begin with – one that, if left alone, would have reached an efficient price through the free rational choices of well-informed people. This is the classical economic model of markets. In that model public money is an intervention into an otherwise self-sufficient system, a necessary distortion we tolerate because culture is simply worth it.

Now that’s fine except for the fact that its not unreasonable to expect that either you or your staff really should know that several decades of economic research have demonstrated that the model of the efficient market – rational actors, each in possession of full and equal information, trading freely to maximise their utility – really describes almost nothing in the real economy we all actually live in. Herbert Simon and later Daniel Kahneman dismantled the rational actor; Joseph Stiglitz won a Nobel Prize for showing what happens once you admit that no two parties ever hold the same information (information asymmetry). And guess what? Karl Polanyi (of all people) made the point long before any of these people that the self-regulating market was never a fact of nature that politics interrupted: rather, markets are bult through law, through enclosure, through deliberate state action. “Laissez-faire,” as he put it, “was planned.” The brilliant Cambridge economist Ha-Joon Chang says the same thing more bluntly: there is no such thing as a free market. Every market that exists runs on rules – property, contract, licensing, standards, subsidy, tax – that we have just stopped noticing. I’m curious: have any of these names or theories every cropped up in policy conversations as you build your budget? Or are you just working on outdated assumptions and pressure from lobbyists?

Let’s repeat it – the research and the thinking in economics over many decades has made the point that a market is a designed thing, brought into being by legislation, regulation, investment and incentive. And here’s the kicker: if a market is designed, then its inequities and its failures are not accidents of nature to be patched over. They are features of the design. The poverty of professional artists, the hollowing out of our infrastructure of arts centres and production companies, the dependence on unpaid labour – these are the predictable results of a system arranged, mostly by accident rather than intent, to produce them.

Now, guys, that’s just careless. I wouldn’t want a heart surgeon to operate on me who wasn’t familiar with the research and developments in the field for the last several decades. I think its fair to expect the same of a national policy maker.

Also, by the way, the Government made a commitment to designing better public services a couple of years agao in its embrace of service design, of starting from the problem and the user rather than the existing position. If we’re honest, this is an admisssion that public systems, including markets, are designed artefacts and can therefore be redesigned.

The great economist of the common good, Mariana Mazzucato, has spent a career arguing that the State shapes markets deliberately and therefore can do it ambitiously rather than apologetically. So I don’t want to complain about the current design that you keep supporting, but I want to ask what would we build if we took that responsibility for market shaping seriously and designed an arts sector to produce quality work and to look after the people who make it?

So, here’s an approach that you can take, and you can take it now, and you can start delivering it in the course of this year (testing and prototyping) before rolling it out for the next budget. Assuming we’re all still around.

Start with the problem guys! Be clear! what problem is the policy/funding tool solving, and whose problem is it solving? A properly designed arts sector would answer each problem with a specific policy instrument. So, here we go, some spitballing for you, free of charge.

An income floor that returns value to those who create it. Yes I know you’ll point at BIA but its a clumsy and unreliable instrument and it doesn’t address the causes of poverty and precarity, However, if we agree that the arts generate enormous value – in wellbeing, in education, in tourism, in the national brand etc.- but most of the value is captured downstream from the artist, leaving the artist to absorb this as unpaid overtime and precarity, then a properly designed sector treats this as a distribution problem and fixes it directly: a reliable income floor for professional practitioners. This is located in Social Protection and designed along the lines of Farm/Fish assist programmes. Both of these programmes already accept that freelance people are free to engage in work of choice that fails to guarantee a liveable income. The mechanism is there so simply expand it. It means that the welfare challenges that artists have experienced over decades simply vanish, and the income floor is absorbed in the wider social protection budget and can’t be voted out of existence (Lets be frank, you guys made great noise about how funding for BIA was secured for this year – which is strange seeing as you had already said it was permanent).

Stable core funding for the infrastructure. This can be delivered through the Arts Council and local authorities, and it guarantees adequate and predictable funding to maintain and develop the infrastructure of the sector – the arts centres, galleries, producing organisations, the places were people actually make and show work – and to sustain a baseline of production and public engagement and real work opportunities for the artists.

A purchasing arrangement between departments. Health, education, tourism and others draw real, actual and costable benefit from cultural activity – and right now they largely take it for free, leaving the arts budget to subsidise other departments’ objectives. A properly designed system would price this honestly: where a department wishes to buy a valuable outcome, it pays for it at a proper rate. This reframes a great deal of spending from “subsidy” to procurement of value, which is both fairer and far easier to defend.

A tiered structure of tax expenditures and incentives. Private money in the arts sector right now is negligible. However, we can design a suite of tax expenditures and incentives that could give each kind of giving a deliberate route: reliefs designed for local small-business sponsorship to grow local creative economies, mechanisms for large-scale national sponsorship, and progressive reliefs for private investment and giving – designed so that lower-income households can both take part and back local and family ambitions, rather than schemes that quietly reward only those who already have the most.

Each of the ideas above is aimed at a specific problem and collectively they produce a robust system that delivers real public value, and guarantees sustainability of the wider sector. They deliver an ecology, where each piece reinforces the other rather than competing for the same shrinking pot.

Now look, none of this is simple. Costing cultural outcomes is really hard and is genuinely contested across the research. Baumol’s cost disease does not vanish because we have acknowldged it. The cost of an arts sector will continue to increase faster than other sectors – its inevitable. Taking a design approach does not make the trade-offs disappear, but it does mean that we can own them deliberately, instead of allocating a lump sum and hoping something sticks.

So, Simon, Patrick, Jack, apologies for any harsh words I may have used in response to your budget nonsense around the arts. I hope you understand now where the persistent anger comes from, and what you can actually do to deliver some real public value, Which is, after all, a part of your job.

Another kind of BIA

This was a Facebook post. But someone asked for it and it took ages to find, so I’m putting it here for easy access.

A quick post about why we can’t make the Basic Income for Artists available to ALL artists/creative workers. The argument against permanance will start off with the cost problem but lets consider this for a moment. Farm Assist (and indeed Fish Assist) are statutory categories that recognise farmers and fisherfolk as self-employed people whose chosen occupation is accepted as their work despite the fact it doesn’t pay them. There is no “availability-for-work” test. The level of payment is set against income (there are of course various disregards etc.) Now the rational economic thing to do if a farmer can’t make a living is sell the farm to a larger farmer, and go off and get a job. The larger farm has economies of scale etc. so there would be no real loss to agricultural output, and very probably a rise in productivity. But we don’t do that. What the Farm and Fish assist payments establish is that a citizen has the right to chose what they work at, and has a right to be self employed without earning enough to make an effective living. Although no one would deny that the financially unrewarding work of this farmer makes a valuable net contribution to society at large.

Is that not a very similar economic situation to the average artist? And yet for some reason we get into a moral and legislative hizzy over the right of artists to pursue work as freelance workers that cannot provide an acceptable income but contributes to the wider social and economic good.

Think about it: if we added “Art Assist” as a welfare payment category then EVERY artist would be eligible. They could receive weekly payments via the Welfare Budget with no requirement to prove that they were becoming more employable, with no 3 year cliff edge, and without renouncing their freelance status.

We move from a scraps from the table “lottery” which you might win twice in a career to an entitlement that once we quality for it is paid indefinately. And you don’t have to defend a fixed budget line item every year at budget time. The welfare budget simply adjusts around the demand.

From a policy perspective we need to ask what problem are we solving? If the problem is artist poverty produced by precarity, poor funding models, and cost disease then the “Farm Assist” model is a far better policy instrument in that it is targeted, its an entitlement, and its permanent. BIA is none of these things.

Of course some changes would have to be made to the Assist framework (move to individual as opposed to household assessment for example), but making it a welfare payment on this model means that we acknowledge the right of the individual artist to choose a form of work that fails to produce a sufficient income; we acknowledge the right of that individual to be freelance and in receipt of state support; and we acknowledge the reality that some work is valuable in aggregate while failing to support at the individual level. And we stop treating people (artists) as problematic and acknowledge that the problem is systemic.”

Why do we need to fund the arts in the first place?

And why is there never enough?

(and why that is not, in the end, an arts problem)

As we roll into the budget announcement I wanted to ask a question before the annual disappointment lands.

Why does the state bother to fund the arts at all?

I mean, in a very literal sense, why do we need to fund them, in the very specific, almost mechanical sense of what is the money actually paying for? What problem is it fixing?

Now, what usually happens at this point is the conversation takes a bit of a diversion and we start talking about “Intrinsic Value” “Public Good” “Merit” and in recent years “Wellbeing” “Soft Power” etc. And even sometimes we can offer “Market Failure” as the answer. Now I’ve used all of these answers and arguments in various reports, blogs, workshops, policy briefs and so on, and they are all valuable and useful from their particular perspectives.

However, if I’m completely honest I think they’re more a set of values than actual answers. (and I suspect that very few policy makers actually believe them). I say this because there is an answer to the question that is very very simple:

We fund the arts because most people couldn’t afford to pay for them if the price reflected the actual cost of production

Performance is a great example here. Ask yourself what a ticket to a show in your local arts centre would cost if the ticket price reflected the full cost of production – the artists’ time, the building cost, the staff costs, the marketing, the set materials, the construction costs, the light, the heat, etc. All tickets would start somewhere around the €200 mark. And if it’s not Oasis nobody is willing – or able – to pay that price. The actual real price for an arts experience would literally emtpty the theatre and almost everywhere would close down.

What we call “Subsidy” is simply the name we give to the way we try to close the gap between the price people can pay and the real cost of producing the work.

When we consider the nature of that gap the whole arts economy/funding system starts to make sense, and we can understand and explain the thing that everybody complains about: why there is never, ever, enough funding. As one politician remarked to a colleage recently, “Sure you lot have a load of increases these last few years”.

Unfortunately for everybody – including this politician – the gap between affordable price and true cost is not stable, and so its not something that the arts sector might one day close through efficiency, or better “audience engagement” or marketing, or a bit of business support or an entrepreneurial mindset. The gap is being widened constantly at both ends by economic forces outside the control of the arts sector.

From one side of the gap, the price most of the public can afford to pay is falling in real terms. On a global scale wages have not tracked inflation and – as we know – housing, energy and childcare have eaten what disposable income remains for many people. The “affordable ticket price” is for an increasing number of people a smaller and smaller number every year because they have less disposable income in real terms.

And on the other side of the gap the cost of production rises inexorably – with general inflation, hypercharged by the economic phenomenon of Cost Disease.

What this means is that most artistic labour cannot get the productivity gains the rest of the economy relies on to hold prices down. It takes the same number of musicians the same length of time to play a concerto as it did a century ago; imagining the novel or the play or the poem still takes whatever time it takes, likewise the painting or the scupture or the installation. Productivity gains in this kind of labour are marginal at best. In creative labour the artist is both the principal input and the principle process. This is Baumol’s Cost Disease (Baumol & Bowen, 1966), and its impact is unavoidable:

The arts become structurally more expensive relative to everything else forever, as a matter of arithmetic – despite how well managed they are.

So the gap between what the work costs and the price people can afford to pay is widening from both ends at once all the time. And that means that the subsidy required to bridge that gap gets bigger all the time. There is nothing here that the Department or the Arts Council or the sector can do to control a set of macroeconomic conditions – stagnant wages, rising prices, and rising inequality. And that is why there is never, ever enough. We keep expecting an arts budget to pay for a wealth-redistribution/inequalty/inflation problem, and that problem keeps getting bigger moment by moment, year on year.

Now we all know that the “subsidy” – when it arrives – is never, ever capable of bridging the gap between the actual cost of production and the price that can be paid, and that means that a second subsidy is required.

So, when public funding does not bridge the gap – and remember that standstill (or below the rate of inflation) funding, in a period of inflation, guarantees it will not – the shortfall does not vanish. Some things don’t happen but overall the shortfall is made up by people whose contribution never appears as a line in any budget: the artists and arts workers themselves, through fees below the minimum wage, through unpaid preparation, through deferred and foregone income, through salaries that haven’t increased in years, through increased responsibilities etc. All this free labour fills the ever-growing subsidy gap. (Interestingly the same thing happens in education, in child care, elder care, in any sector that depends primarily on people)

But we all know about the hidden subsidy – it’s a core principle in the economics of artistic labour. The arts sector is known to be an “exceptional” economy in which an oversupplied, intrinsically motivated workforce accepts systematically low and uncertain returns (see Abbing’s Why are Artists Poor, 2002 and Menger’s The Economics of Creativity 2014). Fobazi Ettarh coined the term “Vocational Awe” in 2018 (Vocational Awe and Librarianship: The Lies We Tell Ourselves) to explain the phenomenon of people who believe the work they do is so essential that that they absorb the additional costs of production into themselves. If we do that then there’s no pressing need for the state to address the subsidy gap.

We tend to think of this hidden subsidy as a characteristic of the arts labour market. But given that its a “characteristic” that is growing in size we can suggest that the poverty expereienced by artists and the fragility experienced by arts organisations are not regrettable side-effects of the funding system. They are a funding mechanism.

What I mean by this is that the hidden subsidy that generates the sectors prevailing poverty is used as the sector’s balancing item (in an accounting sense), the invisible transfer closes the funding gap and balances the books as it were. The same way it does in care, and housework, and other structurally similar sectors.

Now we have a really clear picture of the arts funding system.

On the demand side what the public can pay is falling so ticket prices cannot rise; on the supply side the cost of making the work continues to rise above the standard riate of inflation. The gap between these two poles is filled by two subsidies: the public one (e.g. an Arts Council Budget) , and the private one which is extracted from the workforce. If we continue to hold the public subsidy flat in real terms the gap widens every year. However the system still has to “clear” so it consumes the only variable left free to move – the income of the people working in the sector. It’s no surprise that the Department’s research into BIA found deprivation levels 3 times the national average.

Standstill funding is not neutral. At its heart it is a political decision about how much additional poverty the people who work in the sector will be required to absorb to keep the sector functioning.

Essentially a single under-costed subsidy is being asked to do three incompatible things at once: keep the artist alive, cover the cost of production, and keep the cost of access affordable to the public. None of these functions is resourced to meet their actual costs because they’ve become all tangled up in everybody’s mind. If we can untangle it the policy choices become clearer

Artist livelihood is an income/welfare question and should sit with social protection and a payment scheme open to all creative workers modelled on something like the farm assist scheme should be put in place.

Production is a supply-side question and funding needs to meet the true cost of making the work, so the output costs need to be priced realistically (if you funded everything 100% then the state could earn all the PAYE, VAT etc, and could take some or all of the value of sales back)

Access is a demand-side question and the cost of access needs to be minimised, and Sen’s capability approach needs to be taken so we can identify real barriers to access and deal with them.

If we fund each function then we can stop balancing the books by extracting more free labour from the people who work in the sector.

Will this require a bigger subsidy? Absolutely! It’s worth saying that the idea that a state subsidy is a cost to be minimised, especially on “non essential services”, is an ideological position. As Mazzucato (2018) and many, many others have argued: state subsidy creates value in its own right (the Department’s own reseach on BIA clearly established this)

So, when the budget drops and news of arts council funding is announced, remember two questions that matter.

Which of the three jobs is this money pretending to do?

And: whose poverty is making up the difference?

We can ask the same questions about a whole range of human centred sectors dependent on subsidy and held together by invisible labour (and its worth doing that)

From a policy perspective putting more money into a poorly designed system does not fix anything, it just slows down the collabpse. The problem was never the money, it was always the design.

A €100 Culture Card is a Terrible Idea

The proposed Culture Card is such a bad policy idea that I had to write a blog about it – and I have work to do!

So, very quickly, the Government has decided that a great intervention into the perpetually underfunded, perpetually crisis ridden arts and culture sector is a €100 “Culture Card” for every 16-year-old in the country. That’s about 70,000 teenagers, at a first-year cost of roughly €7.5 million, with an extension to 17-year-olds planned for Budget 2028. Fianna Fail were claiming this as their initiative on the radio on Monday but the idea has an impeccable pedigree. Before the 2024 election Fine Gael proposed a €300 version; Sinn Féin floated a €130 card back around 2016, and a Fianna Fáil TD suggested a €100 card at age 18 – I’m not quite sure when. The Programme for Government duly promised to examine one. Well here it is and unfortunately they clearly didn’t bother to “examine” it first.

I work in the arts and culture sector every day and have done for my entire career and this is bad, bad policy. Not because supporting young people’s cultural lives is a poor aim – it’s probably one of the best aims we can have in this sector – but because the policy fails the first test any policy intervention should pass. It does not begin with a clearly defined problem. It begins with an instrument (the Culture Card), and works backwards from a policy instrument to try and find a problem that it “fixes”.

So, what’s the problem?

The stated rationale behind the card, such as it is, is that live attendance among young people fell after Covid and that venues face attendance challenges. OK – but that describes a symptom, it does not constitute a diagnosis. In classic neo-liberal, homo-economicus fantasy logic the government has decided that the problem must be transactional, and that if young people had the option they would “rationally” chose to sign up and consume art and culture appropriately. Its a demand side solution.

But the real question is what stops the 16-year-olds who don’t take part from taking part – and is €100 the thing standing in their way?

So here’s a bit of Nobel prize economics for you. Amartya Sen’s capability approach states that there is a gap between a resource and the real, actual freedom to use it. A €100 voucher is a commodity – an input, a resource. What we need to be thinking about is capability: whether a 16 year old has a real opportunity to convert that input/resource into the thing they (and we) actually value, a functioning cultural life. And whether they can convert it depends on what Sen calls “conversion factors” – personal, social and environmental – that vary enormously from one teenager to the next, and they vary according to social class, geography, education, inherited social capital, etc. etc

These “conversion factors” are the very barriers the scheme chooses to ignore. Geography (is there anything within reach of a teenager where they live after dark?); transport (can they get to it and home again without a car and a willing parent?); information and habit (do they know what’s on, have they anyone to go with, do they come from a household that does this sort of thing?); supply (is anything programmed for them, near them, at all?). This proposed “Culture Pass” hands every 16 year old the same resource but – again – does nothing about the wildly unequal capacity to convert it. For those already excluded, the conversion factors are missing, so the Culture Pass has no value. For the already-advantaged, the conversion factors are all in place, so the euros convert straight into more of what they were doing anyway. Equal resources; deeply unequal capabilities. And that’s not an error that’s how its designed. Its a fantasy solution in a fantasy economic model. It should be eligble for a fiction award.

Any chance of a bit of due dilligence and research?

The Culture Pass is clearly based on France’s Pass Culture, and – guess what – the French Goverenment’s own audit of this tells us that it failed in precisely the way a capability analysis would have predicted. If you make the same resource available to everybody but you don’t address the conversion factors then participation does not equalise, it diverges. The Cour des Comptes (France’s National Audit Office), reported in December 2024, that government spending on the Pass had soared, that the scheme was not meeting its social objectives, and that it needed reform. Some 84 per cent of eighteen-year-olds had signed up, but only 68 per cent of the most disadvantaged, which meant that the Pass Culture had tracked and reinforced the very inequality it was meant to close. The money went on books, driven by manga and romance; cinema and a little theatre followed; live performance came to under one per cent. The auditors’ concluded by stating that the pass tended to confirm young people’s existing habits rather than broaden their horizons – at a cost that climbed past €300 million, more than 6 per cent of the culture ministry’s budget, before France moved to cut it by half in 2025 , admitting that it needed fundamental reform.

So our proposed Culture Pass is based on a documented failure its own government is currently unwinding. As policy practice this idea goes from bad to worse.

Some more economics – policy makers should love this bit!

Lets look at the Deadweight attached to the Culture Card (Deadweight, in plain terms, is public money spent on behaviour that would have happened anyway). An awful lot of that €7.5m will subsidise the cinema and gig tickets comfortable, connected teenagers were going to buy anyway. That is not participation gained; it is spending shifted onto the State (arguably another redistribution of wealth upwards). Add to this that a €100 on a 16 year olds phone will mostly be redeemed at multiplexes and through the big ticketing platforms, not at the small regional arts centres and independent venues the scheme is rhetorically meant to help so less of that money stays in circulation. Bear in mind that the network of regional arts centres are struggling with lack of funding in the face of systemic pressures from rising costs in energy, insurance, payroll and dilapidated buildings, and a scatter of teenage transactions will not materially address that rising systemic risk.

So what will this Culture Card actually achieve?

From a policy perspective, if you wanted to design an intervention that could change the lives of excluded young people, you most certainly would not design this. But if you wanted to design something a group of people on the cusp of voting age would notice, remember and feel – a card with their name on it, €100 to spend on something fun – then this is precisely what you would design. Sadly, nobody will remember the budget line that repaired an arts centre roof or doubled a touring budget, or supported greater local collaboration between arts centres and youth arts, and youth services, or addressed any of the pressing systemic issues – but everybody remembers the free money (Trump did’t promise €5,000 for nothing). When a policy is shaped to be felt by future voters and not shaped to solve existing problems then the most economical explanation is that “political salience” (a polite phrase), not cultural outcome, is the objective. The cross-party scramble to own the idea where every party had a number but nobody had a solid diagnosis, or could identify the problem the policy was solving, just confirms this.

In fairness – maybe I’m just too cross…or am I?

On the other hand, you could argue that universalism avoids the stigma and administrative cost of means-testing. A card for everyone sends a real signal that culture belongs to everyone. Youth attendance did fall after the pandemic. Early exposure does correlate with lifelong engagement. And the French scheme, whatever its faults, enrolled most of a generation.

Unfortunately, despite the truth of all that we can’t avoid the fact that universality equalises the resource, not the capability, and that means that the money serves those with the conversion factors already in place.

Also, despite all that if we want to build a life-long habit then 16 is too late to intervene, because personal taste has already been shaped by family and the social capital inheritance, by existing capabilities, by location, class etc.

If the problem is that too many young people never form a meaningful relationship with cultural life, the money should go where that relationship is made – and if we acccept Sen’s analysis then the money should go into the conversion factors rather than the commodity.

Its also really important to say that EVERYBODY has a meaningful relationship with a cultural life, but – for whatever reasons – policy makers may prefer that people had a specific kind of cultural life, and that’s a whole different kettle of fish!

The end of Social Media as an arts marketing tool?

I’ve been reading Cory Doctorow’s Enshittification, his book on the appalling behaviour of the Big Tech companies and I got to thinking about arts centres and arts marketing in general. I’d love to know if the implications of what he’s suggesting are real so here it is.

Facebook (and Tik Tok and insta etc) and Google changed the way they work so that they could maximise the money they could extract from advertisers and users. As a result there are no longer any guarantees that an ad you pay for is even shown to its intended market and no guarantee that the content you post is seen by your followers or interested people. The algorithm on the feed means that the people following you see less and less of your posts.

Facebook organic page reach dropped from around 6–8% to 2–3% after the 2018 News Feed change, and the 2020–2023 shift to algorithmic Instagram feeds cut organic reach for non-Reel content by 50%+. Also, paid social has got dearer: average cost per click across Facebook and Instagram rose roughly 89% between 2019 and 2024.

In other words, if you’re relying on social media and online ads to sell tickets you’re more than likely just burning money.

Yes, but what about all those engagement metrics and charts we can get from our social media platforms?

Doctorow argues convincingly that platform analytics are designed to make spending feel effective and to keep it flowing. Impressions, reach, engagement rate are all designed to measure the platform’s activity, not the outcome. Sure, your post may well have reached 12,000 people but how many of them bought a ticket? This “conversion rate” is the only valuable metric – everything else is vanity. If you don’t have a way to track that engagement to your box office software then it’s not really telling you anything. It’s just noise masquerading as insight.

Interestingly, email conversion rates at 1–5% are roughly 10 times organic social conversion rates which tend to be 0.1–0.5 and email has a higher return on investment.

If Doctorow is correct then the principle purpose of your social media content strategy is simply to be there if someone goes looking for it, it’s a coms channel, just don’t expect it to sell any tickets, don’t expect posts to be shown to your followers, don’t expect ads to reach their target audience.

About 15 years ago I ran a €50 Facebook add campaign and sold out an underperforming venue in two days on a tour. It feels like those days are over.

Love to hear people’s experiences around this.

3 Theories Behind Every Arts Policy

So the previous post claimed that an effective arts policy starts when we look at the vision statement (e.g. “creativity at the heart of every community”or a place “where the arts are valued as central to civic life, as a hallmark of local and national identity, and as sign and signature of our creativity as a people) and take the vision statement seriously enough to ask why isn’t it already like that?.

I also said that once you ask that question you’re forced into a diagnosis. Unfortunately you can’t do a diagnosis without some kind of theoretical framework or you end up in the “artists need to be more entrepreneurial”, “its not really commercial” and my favourite “how much money do you people want!?” school of analysis which assumes that the policy problem exists because people just aren’t trying hard enough. (Its worth bearing in mind that although we’re considering arts policy here, we can apply the same analysis to pretty much any public policy area).

A theory is simply a model of how something works informed by observation, research and reflection. It’s never 100% right but it helps us to be less and less wrong. And that’s important in policy.

It’s worth sitting with the fact that you will not find anywhere in the legislation, policy or strategy documents pertaining to the arts (or culture) in Ireland a coherent set of theories on what art is, what an audience is or how it’s formed, or an economic theory of why the state should be involved at all in the whole art thing. The “values” and “visions” are stated everywhere but there are no coherent theories underpinning them – at least not publicly.

The absence of coherent and explicit theories means that assessments and funding decisions can feel arbitrary, funding schemes tend to proliferate without any real pattern or consistent purpose, and the advocacy and the case-making tends to struggle for credibility, and ministerial and government support is dependent on personal preference informed solely by experience and not theory.

I reckon we can build a workable arts policy on three fundamental theories from which everything else – priorities, instruments, assessment, budget – can be derived. A theory of art, a theory of audience, and a theory of value.

First theory: art is a relationship, not an object

Most funding systems assume that that art is a thing: a production, a publication, an exhibition, an output of some kind. Money goes into the system (to artists and organisations) and objects come out. We count the objects, count the audience, do a drive-by photo and the job is done.

Without getting into the whole “art is a highly contested word” territory, lets see what happens if our theoretical starting point is that art is a relationship and not an object, or at the very least the value of art is not resident in the object but happens when people turn up and experience it – when the book is read, when the music is heard, when the show is experienced, etc. The English critic Christopher Caudwell put it succinctly back at the start of the 20th Century : “Poetry is what happens when it is read.”

The objects and events themselves, regardless of their technical proficiency, are simply evidence of a society thinking and reflecting on itself, but the art occurs in the relationship – in the spaces between the object and the audience. Art – with a capital A – occurs when enough people (or enough people with power) build a relationship with the object and declare it to be Art.

Art happens in the relationships, perhaps at its heart it is the relationship.

AI has done us a great favour here, because it can produce objects – painting, stories, scripts, films, music – of great complexity and skill in milliseconds and at almost zero cost (once we ignore the externalities of energy and water consumption, and price of deskilling), indistinguishable to many people to work created by individuals. If the value of art sits in the object then AI is the best argument against arts funding and the idea of the creative individual.

However, AI cannot replicate or automate the production of relationships: the magic moment when a particular person, in a particular room, in a particular town, develops a relationship with a singer, an actor, a mural, a dancer; when for that briefest of moment we feel seen, understood, connected, excited, transported by an encounter with other people working at the edge of what they can do. For a split second we see ourselves and we understand our world. The Art is in that moment, and then it is gone.

From a policy point of view a theory of art as relationship makes us realise that a funding system focused on the making and presentation of objects is simply a capitalist production line that will be more “efficiently” managed by AI. So lets try and avoid that.

Second Theory: audiences exist before the art arrives

I made the point in the last post that ” participation in the arts is one of the most reliably stratified activities in any society. Engagement tracks education first, then income and then geography. We learn about it from infancy (inherited social capital), our parents can afford the classes and the shows, we have access to facilities. A child who receives sustained arts education participates for life; a child who doesn’t, largely doesn’t. A family choosing between heating and a theatre ticket or a music class has not made a cultural choice. A town with no realistic public transport to the nearest arts facility has not lost interest in art, it just can’t get to it”. We don’t need to look at any of the great theorists of cultural participation to feel the truth of this – if you’re reading this its probably because there were books in your house growing up, or because there was music in the house, or because you were taken to a play by your mad relative, or because there was a teacher who just did mad stuff in class; there was a record store you could hang out in, a cinema you could get into, or the conversation around you turned toward the cultural. You can’t turn up with an object of what you think is art and expect to convert non-believers like a flute-playing Jeremy Irons. By the time we get there with our show, or story or exhibition, they’ve already decided what they like. They mostly made their choice in childhood, and taste (or preference or relevance) is formed early. The audience already exists – if you want to build a relationship with them you need to listen, respect, and respond. You can share your vision of the world, but if it doesn’t connect with theirs then there is no relationship, no Art emerges.

A lot of Arts policy is really uncomfortable with this reality and gets confused over engagement and development. If we assume that the audience already exists then the principle policy issue is do they have access to what they want – to the work that is relevant to them, that reflects their taste. If you want to capture the people who have no interest in turning up then you’re in the development business and you need to accept that meaningful development happens in families and in schools and youth clubs. From a policy perspective audience development is very very far upstream of access to the event.

It’s probably more accurate to say that taste, preference, exists before the art arrives. If the art is consistently relevant to particular people in a particular place then the chance of lasting relationships developing is high, and all those individual people who already know what they liked will, through repeated encounters with an arts centre, or a company or an artist, develop into an audience.

When thinking about audiences remember that they are formed before the art arrives, and then remember Amartya Sen’s theory of “capability”: the presence of an arts centre, or a theatre, or a gallery along with a programme of “Art” constitutes a formal freedom to do something, but their presence is meaningless unless the relevant “conversion factors” are in place: prior knowledge and relevant social capital, the sense that the building is “for you”, relevant education, time, income, confidence, etc. Resources, the presence of something, are not capabilities. An open door is not an invitation, and it is certainly not a bus ticket, a childcare place, or twelve years of music or dance education.

Audiences exist; listen, respect, respond.

Third Theory: the market that fails on purpose

At some point policy is going to have to spend some money, so it really needs a robust economic model that reflects the realities of the specific sector its intervening in.

There’s a lot of reasons why the majority of artists are poor (and getting poorer along with the rest of the 99%). The reason that interests us here is a specific aspect of the market failure in the wider arts sector. Arts activity generates economic value – something in the regions of €1.5 – €2bn in Ireland (depending on which report you read). Unfortunately very little of that value can be captured by a box office or an entry fee. The value is created but captured elsewhere in the economy. Direct state funding (or in Ireland’s case state funding and lotto money) redistributes some of that value via the tax system in the form of direct subsidy. This is a standard policy response to this kind of market failure.

However, there’s a second problem baked into the system. The Arts sector depends almost entirely on people for the creation of value. Arguably people (talent) are the key resource and the principal process (practice). Its very, very difficult to increase productivity significantly in the arts through the use of technology (which is what most other sectors do). If we can’t increase productivity and inflation is constant then costs continue to increase year on year and there is no way of stopping that. This phenomenon was identified in 1966 by the American economist Baumol in a huge study of the performing arts in New York, and the phenomenon of rising costs resistant to productivity improvement is called Baumol’s Cost Disease.

The main reason that state funding exists is not to support artists, its to keep art affordable to the public. If state funding didn’t exist then admission prices for everything (and everything would have an admission price) would far exceed the public’s ability to pay in a situation of declining real wages.

This means that policy needs to work out where the money can have the most effect: is it on the supply side (which is where most of it is now, in the making of work), or is it in the demand side, making sure that everybody who wants to engage has the capability (Sen) to do so. Now it would be naive to suddenly switch from a supply side intervention to a demand side one, but an effective policy needs to understand how to mix those two for maximum impact – and right now we’re not doing that.

Why does all this matter

Well first and foremost it matters to me because I enjoy it, but there’s a really practical outcome here. If we build policy on these theories then the priorities stop being a negotiated list of everyone’s favourite things and we can rigourously derive and test the priorities from the theories. For example does this scheme fund an encounter or merely an output? Does it form an audience or transact with one? Does it correct the market failure or subsidise something the market would do anyway? Funding applications can start asking questions like what relationships did you form, deepen, or make possible, and what is the evidence? The argument for funding at government level starts presenting a set of steps to correct a market failure aggravated by cost disease – these are terms embedded in the economic language that departments actually use and understand.

There’s also a really important democratic and advocacy bit here as well: a funding system that has no stated theories (no “first principles”) cannot be held to account, cannot be defended against cuts, and cannot be redesigned. Every decision made is arguable because nothing is based on anything real. What policy theory tells us will happen in this situation is what we see happen: the strongest incumbents win, the assessments always feel like personal preference, and there’s no compelling answer to “why fund this at all?” when the next recession comes around.

So, the better approach to arts policy is not ‘better values” or more aspirational prose. Set out robust theoretical frameworks on art, audience, and economics and then deduce the policy from them – even if you don’t like what comes out. First principles – you can’t beat them.

How can we make better arts policies and strategies?

Vision. The idea of “having a vision”. The “Vision Statement, Mission Statement, and Values” structure we find in strategies and policies has dominated the strategy and policy field for a quite some time.  As a consultant I’ve spent a lot of time in workshops and focus groups with clients and local governments, with post-its and design sprints and lego and role play and what not creating some beautiful vision statements.  I can purple-prose it with the best of them!

But from an arts policy/strategy perspective the focus on Vision is a dangerous distraction. Look carefully at the language:

“We want England to be a country in which the creativity of each of us is valued and given the chance to flourish.” (Arts Council England’s Let’s Create, 2020)

“a place for every story, a story for every place” (Australia’s national cultural policy, Revive 2023),

“Amplify our arts and culture to make New Zealand a creative powerhouse with global reach” (Amplify: A Creative and Cultural Strategy for New Zealand 2025 -2030)

Our own National Culture Policy (now out of date) stated in its original draft that its vision was to “put creativity at the heart of every community”. This was changed in later versions and the current publicly available version doesn’t seem to have a single vision, rather it has three “fundamental principles”:

  1. Recognising the value of culture and creativity to the individual and society
  2. Supporting creative practice and cultural participation
  3. Cherishing our cultural heritage

Check through any amount of arts plans, policies, strategies, be they published by national or local government or national agencies and you will find versions of these visions of the future.

Don’t get me wrong, I think all of these are admirable, I’ve written many versions of them over the years but they are not policy (and certainly not strategy). If anything they capture the ongoing failure of policy. Let me explain.

All of the above are “value positions”. A value position simply tells us what the policy maker believes or wants to be seen to believe. Policy is something else entirely. Real, effective policy starts when you take the value position seriously enough to ask the question: Why is it not like that already?

Why isn’t New Zealand’s arts and culture a creative powerhouse with global reach?

Why isn’t everybody’s creativity in England given the chance to flourish?

Why isn’t there a place for every story in Australia?

Why have you not recognised the value of culture and creativity to the individual and society?

Why isn’t creative practice and participation supported?

Why isn’t the distinctive societal value of the arts recognised by local and national politicians, decision-makers and officials in a wide range of departments and agencies and provided for accordingly?

As policy makers, the moment we challenge the vision and ask the follow-up “why isn’t it like that already” we are forcing a diagnosis that reaches beyond the sector under consideration and back into the wider system. We are forcing a seriousness of intent.  

Are these problems that are hidden in the vision statement resulting from an education issue, an inequality issue, an ideological issue? Is creativity absent from lots of communities because the private economics of making art outside a major urban centre are subject to extreme market failure? Is it because funding structures which should correct market failure don’t understand the nature of that failure? Is it because increasing inequality and regressive redistribution policies have reduced the capacity of local governments – and local government arts offices in particular. Is it because of a wider cultural problem that really doesn’t believe in the value of arts? Is it because arts, critical thinking, and reflective practice have been downplayed in education for decades as we attempt to turn out employment-ready students?

Every response we make to the question “why isn’t it like that already” (particularly in a situation where policy action and investment has been consistent over time) points us toward a different policy instrument, a different budget line, a different accountability structure. If we don’t do the diagnosis then we’re not doing the policy and we end up with something akin to a mood board with a ministerial foreword.

I also need to add that this is probably not deliberate. It happens when we think an aspiration is an output. When “positive thinking” protects us from social realities.  We’ve said we want to build 300,000 houses by 2030 and that’s the job done; we’ve said we recognise the value of culture and creativity to the individual and society, so that’s the job done. Unfortunately, in so many cases, the difficult middle bit of the policy process, the diagnosis, the problem definition and identification, the selection of the appropriate instrument, the costing, the accountability is simply ignored and replaced with random ideas on how to realise the “vision” without asking why we need to have such vision in the first place. If we cannot address the primary cause of a problem, that problem ain’t going away and we end up with what governments find easiest to fund: programmes, initiatives, visibility etc., and then ten years later we measure the success of the aspiration by the existence of the aspiration.

It’s true, that when we ask the question  “why isn’t it like that already?” we create a difficulty for policy makers in arts/culture in that the answers can’t be found inside the cultural brief.  For example participation in the arts is one of the most reliably stratified activities in any society. Engagement tracks education first, then income and then geography. We learn about it from infancy (inherited social capital), our parents can afford the classes and the shows, we have access to facilities. A child who receives sustained arts education participates for life; a child who doesn’t, largely doesn’t. A family choosing between heating and a theatre ticket or a music class has not made a cultural choice. A town with no realistic public transport to the nearest arts facility has not lost interest in art, it has lost access to it.

The great Indian economist Amartya Sen’s capability approach distinguishes between the formal freedom to do something and the real capability to do it –  what he describes as the substantive freedom to live a life one has reason to value. A free museum in a city a two-hour bus ride away is a formal freedom. Whether it becomes a real capability depends on what Sen calls conversion factors: income, education, time, transport, confidence, health, the sense that the building is actually for you. Much cultural policy has spent decades supplying formal freedoms – open doors, free admission, “access” schemes – and then being surprised that the same social groups keep turning up. Sen would not be puzzled. Resources are not capabilities. An open door is not an invitation, and it is certainly not a bus ticket, a childcare place, or twelve years of music or dance education.

Those cultural policies – and we produce a lot of them here – that are built on visions that include the word “everybody” are really just a cultural aspiration and a hopeful claim about the distribution of capabilities, and therefore a claim about equity in education policy, income policy, and spatial policy. And this is precisely why scholars like Justin O’Connor and the great economist Marianna Mazzucato argue that art/culture are not stand-alone sectors but part of the underlying foundation of a society and an economy. Which is why, in an arts policy context, it’s really much easier to publish the aspiration than the diagnosis. The diagnosis implicates departments that haven’t signed the foreword, as it were.

Let’s at least be Honest in Policy

So let’s be honest in our next wave of policy making. Building policy honestly is not mysterious. When we’re building the next arts policy or strategy let’s sidestep the purple prose as quickly as we can. Here’s a workable approach:

1. State the value position and then convert it into a gap/problem/challenge.  So if the vision is “Creativity at the heart of every community” then ask why isn’t it already there? Don’t just map deficits, define terms and look for causes.

2. Diagnose the cause. Why does the deficit/challenge exist? Market failure, cost disease, funding mismatch, underinvestment, capture by incumbents etc, and then look for the structural determinants: education, income, inequality, place. This is where the real analytical work happens and it is the step most policy documents omit, usually because the answers implicate previous policy and partly because they implicate other departments entirely. Remember when we ask “why  isn’t it already like that?” a beautiful vision statement can become an admission of previous failures. And nobody likes that…

3. Choose the instrument that fits your analysis. De we need supply-side subsidy, or demand-side stimulus in the form of regulation, direct provision, tax expenditure/breaks. For example if we discovered that artists can’t afford to live in the community and that’s a problem, then a festival grant is the wrong instrument, however photogenic. And if your diagnosis tells you that we’re dealing with capability deprivation (in Sen’s sense), then the instrument may not be a cultural one at all: it might be an urgent need for arts education on the curriculum rather than at its margins, or income supports, or better transport, or just keeping a local venue open, or treating the town as the venue. We need to evaluate every policy instrument by the capabilities it actually expands, not the opportunities it formally supplies. The great systems analyst Donella Meadows argued that the deepest leverage points are in system structure and goals, not in parameters. Regrettably government arts policy loves tinkering at the parameters (another scheme, another fund) because they are the shallowest and safest place to act – dipping toes in the ocean. 

4. Don’t lie to yourself about the money. As a colleague once remarked to me, a policy without a price is a press release. Don’t just see what change is left in the government coffers, don’t set the budget based on last year’s allocation, and don’t suppose that all of the actions can be funded from a single department. Be honest about what you want to see happen, ask yourself who can deliver these outputs and outcomes for you, and then ask them what it will cost to do so. Pay the price and stop exploiting the sector. If the state won’t or can’t pay what the diagnosis says the problem costs, and can’t find alternative investment sources then say so, admit it and scale the ambition to the money –  do the reverse of the current practice, which continually scales the language up and lets the money stand still. And remember that funding that is not index linked at a minimum and increasing year on year is a managed decline. And remember that the actual number is meaningless – it’s what can be done with the number that’s important.  

5. Keep a clear eye on things. From a policy perspective it’s really important to monitor results (accept feedback and change the policy if appropriate), so who measures the situation in five years, against what baseline, and what happens if nothing has changed or if things have worsened? The problem with most arts/culture policy documents is that they are aspirational, and aspirational documents are pretty much unfalsifiable. It is the nature of good policy that it must be falsifiable, which is exactly why it is harder to publish.

At the end of the day,  it’s a really useful policy stress-test to search the document for the sentence that begins “creativity should be…” or “we want a country where…” and includes “…everybody”. Then look for the paragraph that explains why it currently isn’t. If that paragraph is missing, what you are holding is not a policy. It is a value position –  and the communities and people it invokes will still be waiting at the heart of nothing when the next policy is launched to replace it.

Values are where policy starts. Its not where the work happens.

The Price of Invisibility: thoughts on PAF 2026

Just spent a couple of days at the Performing Arts Forum in Belfast. A really interesting, provocative, entertaining and fun couple of days (everything the performing arts are if you think about it) – so congratulations to the team at PAF, to the curators Ruth McGowan and Alice Malseed, the panellists, the moderators, the contributors and the wonderful performers.

A high point for me was the Long Table session facilitated by Dr. Ali FitzGibbon of Queens University. The Long Table approach was new to me, and – if you haven’t experienced it in action – check it out!

The session was designed to explore where the performing arts sector is at, six years on from the COVID pandemic. “What were the positive changes that emerged? What challenges are still with us? What is the learning with hindsight from such a critical time for performing arts?”

The contributions were honest, emotional, rigorous and various. There was one thing that captured my attention. The number of times people said that they felt “visible” during the pandemic. It felt like suddenly everybody was talking about artists, money seemed to increase into the sector, opportunities opened, people had access to space and resources they hadn’t had before. For a brief period they were “seen”. But that visibility seemed to evaporate once everything “got back to normal”.

I was surprised by the depth of emotion around this experience. And as I reflected on the previous days panel discussions and listened to the second day’s discussions I kept hearing the experience of being invisible in almost every discussion. If an experience is that pervasive then it must be systemic in some way and that’s when the the very obvious penny dropped with a very very loud clatter.

Pick up the Arts Act (any version of it), or pick up the National Cultural Policy, or any creative industries plan, or pick up a Local Area Development Plan, or Tourism Plan or any of these kinds of documents and you will find endless mentions of The Arts (and/or Creativity) , and marvellous claims for the impact and social and economic values of “The Arts” but you will not find – from the Arts Act down – any systematic mention or consideration of the labour force required to create “The Arts” – not just the artists but the managers, the administrators, the technicians, nobody gets a mention. You could be forgiven for thinking that “The Arts” arrive as if by magic.

If the people who make and sustain the “The Arts” are invisible within the framework of National Policy – from the founding legislation down – then “The Arts” can be seen as “naturally occurring”. Any “naturally occurring” phenomenon of value (land, water, air, oil, minerals, care) will be exploited. If a labour force is essentially invisible in policy and legislation then it has neither rights nor price.

That invisibility allows politicians and policy mandarins to talk about a sector that generates billions of euro in economic value without really concerning themselves with the economic welfare of the people who make and maintain that value.

It is this very invisibility that allows policy to talk about “subsidy” and not “investment”, that allows for subsidy to ignore inflation, that thinks that the welfare of the labour force is best served by a non index linked lottery scheme, that struggles to understand low income/poverty/precarity as anything other than a personal failing/responsibility. It is this invisibility that allows funding to be treated as a tenner slipped into your hand by a relative at a birthday; it is this invisibility that sparks angry outbursts from politicians who fundamentally are outraged that you’re not grateful for the tenner.

Travelling back in the train I thought that if there was one necessary action to emerge then it is to return the labour force to the legislation, and don’t do it as an afterthought, tucked into a welfare clause, but as the founding premise. Name the workers – not as beneficiaries of “subsidy”, as grateful recipients of the tenner – but as the people without whom there is no arts sector to speak of, fund, or take credit for.

Once that is done then any policy that does not have a labour force plan, a plan that is fully costed and funded, a plan that acknowledges worker rights alongside cultural rights and values, that treats precarity and poverty as a design failure and not a personal one, that indexes support to the real cost of a working life in the arts will be recognised for what it is: not an arts (or cultural policy) but a property policy. Something designed to manage and exploit a “naturally occurring resource”; a policy that does not see people. A policy not worthy of consideration.

That’s the work.

You Don’t Fund a Forest by Paying for Leaves

Culture, Funding, and What Arts Pollicy Keeps Getting Wrong

I put up a post on social media last week that got a lot of attention. The bit that resonated was this

“But culture (arts, community, youth etc) does not behave like a product line. It behaves like soil. You don’t fund a forest by paying for leaves. You fund it by protecting the conditions in which growth is possible: time, trust, continuity, and shared meaning…many of our funding instruments are not neutral. They actively reshape the cultural field – and often in ways that contradict stated policy goals. Funding tools can create the problems they are designed to solve.”

I was surprised how much attention this post got, particularly by one comment: “That feels like a genuine discovery. And rarely in dialogue in this topic have I heard genuine discovery. It sounds like a treatise that needs to be disseminated where it can affect comprehension and change.”

So that felt like a bit of a challenge!! So this is my thinking behind the forest leaves metaphor and why there’s never enough money in the arts,

First, there is a fundamental mistake running through arts and cultural policy. It’s been there so long it’s almost impossible to see.

Public policy works on the assumption that funding responds to problems.

In reality, funding tools can create/aggravate the very problems they are designed to solve.

Now, this is not because policymakers are careless, nor because institutions are corrupt, and it’s not because artists are ungrateful. The reason is simple and it’s a really common mistake. The state, politicians, bureaucrats and other agencies keep misidentifying the object of cultural policy – and then they build instruments that reshape reality to fit the mistake.

The result of this mistake is a system that appears busy, inclusive, and productive, but is actually and quietly destroying the conditions that make culture/art possible in the first place.

The Forest and the Leaves

Let’s take a second to consider this metaphor. You don’t fund a forest by paying for leaves but cultural policy has become very good at funding leaves, as we all know.

Projects. Events. Outputs. Participants. Audiences. Artefacts. These fit neatly into applications, assessment criteria, and annual budgets. They can be measured, reported, and justified.

But culture – unfortunately – doesn’t live in outputs. It lives in conditions.

Time. Trust. Continuity. Shared memory. Informal learning. Intergenerational transmission. Risk-bearing capacity. These are not incidental to culture, they are its soil.

So here’s another great sound bite: when we fund only what we can see, we weaken what allows anything to grow.

The “three body problem”

At the root of the problem is a “conceptual collapse” that policy language rarely acknowledges.

Creativity, culture, and art are routinely treated as if they were the same thing and they are not.

So let’s take a moment to break it down – to name the parts as it were. Creativity is a given – a universal human capacity.

Culture emerges from the convergence of individual and group creativity over time.

Culture produces artefacts: and these are traces, indications, of a society thinking about itself.

Some of these artefacts endure, and we call these Art.

Art then feeds back into culture, reshaping imagination, language, and possibility.

This is a cycle, not a hierarchy.

Unfortunately, when policy collapses this cycle into a single category – ‘“the arts” – it creates impossible expectations:

creativity is treated as something to be allocated or produced, culture is treated as something to be delivered, art is treated as something to be predicted, and funding is expected to function simultaneously as welfare, evaluation, and validation.

Essentially the funding/policy system becomes incoherent because the model is incoherent.

Funding Is Not Neutral

Funding is often spoken about as if it were passive support – the beneficence of an enlightened state.

It’s not that!

Funding is a design tool.

Every funding instrument encodes a theory of how culture (and the arts) works:

project funding assumes culture is episodic, competitive calls assume scarcity and competition produce quality, pre-declared outcomes assume culture is predictable, individualised grants assume resilience is personal.

These assumptions just aren’t articulated, but they are enforced daily through forms, deadlines, assessment criteria, and reporting requirements.

And the arts eco- system behaves accordingly.

Time fragments. Risk is pushed downward onto individuals. Learning becomes performative. Collaboration becomes irrational. Continuity is quietly penalised.

These are not failures of character or competence. They are logical outcomes of the policy tools currently in use.

How Funding Creates Its Own Justification

The irony, or perhaps the joke, is that despite the fact we observe the outcomes produced by this system – precarity, fragmentation, exhaustion – we respond by intensifying the same logic.

We see instability, so we introduce more short-term grants.

We see fragmentation, so we add more competitive schemes.

We see lack of depth, so we demand clearer outcomes in advance.

We see exclusion, so we spread smaller amounts thinner.

Each response treats a system effect as if it were a localised failure.

This is how funding architectures become self-justifying: the damage they cause becomes the evidence for their expansion.

The forest weakens and the leaves multiply. It’s self harm at a systemic level.

The Quiet Substitution of Welfare for Cultural Policy

This is a really fascinating aspect of the great funding mistake and nowhere is it clearer than in the way cultural funding has been asked to absorb failures elsewhere in the state.

Because there is no coherent income architecture for artists, arts funding has quietly become:

income support, labour-market correction, wellbeing intervention, social policy proxy.

All without the scale, authority, or design to do these jobs properly.

This is not compassionate it is simply avoiding the issue,

When welfare is smuggled through cultural funding, both systems are distorted:

cultural policy becomes moralised, funding decisions become confused, and culture is instrumentalised to solve problems it did not create.

Arts funding should not be concerned with artists welfare because that’s a welfare /human rights issue not an arts issue.

Separating income support from cultural funding is not technocratic tidying – it is conceptual honesty.

Culture Is a Condition, Not an Activity

Let’s try and pull all this together. The central error is this:

Cultural policy treats culture (and therefore arts) as an activity when it is a condition.

Activities can be funded episodically, but the conditions that produce those activities must be sustained.

Culture, however, behaves like a field:

relational rather than transactional, cumulative rather than episodic, place-based rather than mobile, time-dependent rather than immediate.

Project funding is excellent at producing events, but it’s very poor at sustaining fields.

When the project approach becomes the dominant logic, depth declines even as activity increases. We just get more stuff.

What an Effective Alternative Requires

A different outcome does not need better intentions, or a more refined language, but it desperately needs better models and better tools.

It is my belief that an effective cultural funding architecture would:

Fund conditions as infrastructure. Time, continuity, coordination, reflection, and learning are not overheads. They are the system. We need to accept that cultural value is retrospective: what endures cannot be predicted. Autonomy and unevenness, failure, are not flaws: they are conditions of seriousness. We need to mix funding instruments deliberately because direct grants stabilise time and risk; income supports belong in welfare, and tax systems drive investment and engagement. No single policy/funding instrument can do all the work. We need to evaluate coherence, not volume. Retention, collaboration, memory, and capacity tell us more about cultural health than output counts ever will.

What This Implies About the State

If we take all this seriously, it leads us to an uncomfortable conclusion.

The state currently relates to culture as something it funds, uses, and depends on – but does not recognise as a form of public intelligence.

So, in the absence of a robust theory of culture and art, administration and funding step in.

Application forms and guidelines replace understanding, metrics replace meaning, and competitive funding replaces stewardship.

Essentially, culture and the arts are tolerated so long as they remain legible and useful.

But their deepest value lies precisely in what resists legibility: ambiguity, contradiction, deep time, critique, and shared sense-making.

A state that cannot accommodate this is not hostile to culture.

It is simply incoherent.

The Point of the Forest

The forest metaphor works because it exposes the mistake cleanly.

Leaves matter; but they are not the forest.

Projects matter; but they are not culture.

If you fund only what you can see, you will destroy what allows anything to grow

The question really is not whether to fund culture more “generously”. It is whether the state is willing to redesign the invisible infrastructure that shapes cultural life:

funding logics, time horizons, risk distribution, and the boundaries between culture, welfare, and civic participation.

Until that happens, we will continue to get the same outcomes – with better language, kinder intentions, and more exhausted systems.

That is not failure of will, it is failure of design.

What are we to do about the Basic Income?

The Basic Income for Artists has already proved its value according to all government reports. More importantly it’s stopped behaving like a “pilot scheme” and started behaving like essential infrastructure.

People have planned their lives around it. They’ve worked more, not less, taken risks they couldn’t take before, some people have even secured mortgages!

For many of the 2000 people about to come off the scheme in the next week or so all of these developments are in danger and that truly is a tragedy of planning.

According to this government the Basic Income kicks off again in September 2026. But do we just rinse and repeat, or do we take the opportunity to plan for permanence? Are we are willing to finish the job?

What if the next challenge was resolving the design flaws: The Basic Income looks like a grant, is treated like income, and is governed as an exception.

This confusion is the main weakness of the scheme. Coupled with that, because it sits outside the social protection system:
• it interacts badly with welfare supports,
• it creates uncertainty around illness, housing, and life events,
• and it remains politically fragile, vulnerable to reframing as discretionary spending, and dependent on arbitrary political will.

What if the big challenge is understanding that this is a Basic Income Policy, not an Arts Policy. In truth, none of this is about the arts and we need to stop talking about it in the exceptional language of arts policy. Basic Income is about where income supports belong.

Surely, if something provides income security, it belongs in the income security system.

“Grants” fund activity. Income supports secure people. BIA is built on a grant logic trying to solve income problems, the state makes this mistake quite a bit and it never quite works.

Now, the pilot has shown, quietly but decisively, that artistic labour doesn’t fail because of a lack of talent or ambition. It fails because of income volatility. Therefore, if we can reduce the volatility, the rest of the system starts working again.

That underlines the previous point:
Basic Income isn’t an arts intervention. It’s a labour intervention. And that’s worth memorising.

The inevitable next step in this logic: put it where income lives, inside the system that already knows how to do this job.

The social protection system is already set up to:
• support people who work intermittently,
• allow earnings alongside payments,
• manage volatility through taxation and annual assessment,
• and provide continuity across illness, care, and ageing.

Arguably the Back to Work Enterprise Allowance is an early version of the Basic Income Scheme.

Keeping the Basic Income outside that system is no longer neutral. It actively undermines the scheme (as all the people who discovered they were losing their disability benefits will tell you)

Integration isn’t radical. It’s administrative common sense.

It’s important to remember that the welfare system already allows people to work, earn, and receive income supports at the same time. (What it doesn’t handle well is pretending income is a grant).

Once earnings are treated normally – taxed annually, assessed over time rather than week-by-week – the problems disappear. People work more when the cliff edges are removed. We already know this.

There’s a real temptation to think of the next phase as a fight: more funding, more cohorts, more advocacy. But the real task is far more tedious.

What if the next stage of BIA is:
• turning the pilot into a statutory payment, protected by legislation
• moving from discretion to legal entitlement,
• shifting from being exceptional to being protected in a larger system.

If we accept that the Basic Income belongs in social protection, something else becomes clear: artists are not a special case. They are just an early one.

Artists labour reveal what happens when work is intermittent, value is long-term, and income doesn’t arrive neatly every Friday. And that’s no longer unusual. It’s increasingly normal.

The Basic Income doesn’t need defending as an arts policy. It needs finishing as a labour and welfare policy. All it needs is some political will, and a few legislative tweaks and we can have the system the international press currently and mistakenly thinks we have.

And finishing it means putting it where it was always heading anyway..

And just for the record even 8000 artists (four times the current cohort) would account for approximately only 0.48% of the 2026 Department of Social Protection budget. Less than half of one percent. Mull that over for a second.